主題：The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory
報告人：李翊良，對外經濟貿易大學助理教授
摘要：We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time congestion from the position, speed, and heading of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identifying restrictions for supply chain disturbances that allow us to study the causal effects of such disruptions. We document how supply chain shocks drove inflation during 2021 but that, in 2022, traditional demand and supply shocks also played an important role in explaining inflation. Finally, we show how monetary policy is more effective in taming inflation after a global supply chain shock than in regular circumstances.
報告人簡介：李翊良是對外經濟貿易大學國際經濟貿易學院的助理教授。他的研究方向為宏觀經濟學、國際貿易和交通經濟學的交叉領域。他在2022年從牛津大學獲得了經濟學博士學位，並在聯合國、國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行等國際組織的工作中積累了寶貴經驗。
時間：2024年3月21日（周四）中午12:00-1:30
地點：彩神v學院南路校區學術會堂712會議室
主辦單位：創新發展學院中國經濟與管理研究院
